The Sooner Poll released numbers over the weekend regarding the statewide races in Oklahoma. At first glance, the numbers look pretty discouraging for several Democratic candidates. However, a close look at the poll and the methodology used by Sooner Polls shows the numbers released have less than ideal credibility.

First, the sample size is much too small to get an accurate sense of the Oklahoma electorate. Pollsters attempt to collect a representative sample of all voters to get an idea of what the outcome of an election will be. The recent Sooner Poll surveyed only 352 people. By comparison, most polling firms contact about twice as many people when attempting to make a prediction in a statewide race in Oklahoma.

Perhaps an even better justification of the Sooner Poll’s inaccuracy is their prediction in the primary election earlier this year. In that race, its polling was off by huge margins in both the Democratic and Republican gubernatorial primaries. On the Democratic side, Sooner Poll predicted an Edmondson victory by 16 percentage points, but Askins went on to win the nomination. In the Republican race, Sooner Poll correctly predicted Fallin would win, but they said it would be by a landslide of 38 points. In reality, the numbers were much closer with Fallin winning by 15 percent.

Todd Goodman, Chairman of the Oklahoma Democratic Party, said not to be discouraged by misleading polling numbers.

“Because of Sooner Poll’s proven track record of inaccurate polling, I encourage voters to take these numbers with a grain of salt,” Goodman said.

When polls show results that are heavily skewed to one side, it only serves to depress voter turnout. Supporters seeing polls where a candidate is losing by a large margin can really impact morale. It can drive down voter turnout, fundraising efforts and volunteer activity.

“We encourage Askins supporters not to be discouraged by these misleading numbers,” Goodman said. “Not only do we know the Lt. Governor is the most qualified candidate for governor, we know she has the determination and stamina to fight against the odds and win in this election year.”